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 Tuesday, April 25 2006 @ 12:30 AM EDT

Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed

   

OilcastsThe International Energy Agency report, 'Resources to Reserves' comes under the Oilcast analysis spotlight this week. As well as a long look at 'peak oil' the report is also an interesting document, as much by what it omits as by what it contains.

Plus odd weather systems, price movements, American refining capacity and a possible Russian oil exchange...

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Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed | 13 comments | Create New Account
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analysis?
Authored by: BabyPeanut on Thursday, October 13 2005 @ 10:19 AM EDT
Who is Adam Porter and why should anyone believe him?

Oil men. Scoundrels all of them. All tainted by the fact that they are in it for the money.

Admittedly Porter did write this: Oil Market Outlook Mired In Confusion

Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: fatbear on Friday, October 14 2005 @ 05:15 PM EDT
OK, I listened - and I understand the need for making a living - however,
might I ask if you've investigated:

1) ads on the site

2) ads in the podcast

And I somewhat agree with the previous comment, but only to the point
that we should have some more information as to who you and the
other analysts will be - what are your and their qualifications?

Not to forget, of course, what are the price points you're contemplating?

If we had that info, then perhaps we (your loyal listeners) could
respond in a more intelligent fashion.
Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: blackocat on Monday, October 17 2005 @ 10:57 PM EDT
Is there a way of getting your content included in the financial section medium
sized newspaper's website? You might be able to build a following (and maybe
a business model) that will work. I don't know much about this stuff, but look
at your local newspaper for inspiration. Check out the syndicated columnist and
comics. How do they paid to get their content included in the newspaper?
Maybe you can apply the same model to your podcast?
Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: Oilcasters on Tuesday, October 18 2005 @ 06:51 AM EDT
Hi all,
Yes I'm looking at a whole series of ways to make Oilcast pay. That includes adverts inside the podcasts as you suggest.
The idea of making listeners pay for each podcast is only one option. Really I'm just trying to keep everyone informed as to what i'm thinking in general.

As far as the `analysis` goes, sure it should always be questioned, and open to question. Including mine or Dani's or whoever does it. That's a given.
I think everyone is able to analyse a given situation though, i don't think one needs `qualifications` as such. I see - as i'm sure you do - enough poorly thought out analysis of energy situations.

Yes also price points are a major factor. How would one encourage new listeners if they had to pay? How much can you really charge for audio segments? etc etc.

The underlying principle behind all this - and one we've been consistent on since we started - is that in the end Oilcast takes up significant amounts of time. My previous experience with `voluntary` media is that if they get too big then they eventually collapse under their own weight. Hence one needs to make it worth ones while doing it otherwise it just doesn't work...

That isn't to say one is going to become a millionaire, its just that one can do a better, independent job of the type of journalism we want to do if one has some kind of pay, even pretty small amounts...

atb
adam





Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: Oilcasters on Tuesday, October 18 2005 @ 07:05 AM EDT
Oh and apologies...
I'm a journalist who works on oil. I was one of the first people to write about the peak oil crowd back in 2002/03 for New Internationalist magazine. Since then I've ended up writing about a lot of oil-related subjects for a variety of outlets.
I've been a journo for nearly 20 years, but I've written soley on oil (with the odd bit of other stuff) for the last three or so...

I have a non-complete set of articles listed here, i'll try and post them up...it's a bit out of date and some of the work I do isn't online...

best
adam


1. The IEA confront 'peak oil':
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13358

2. BBC: Why refinery shortages push up crude prices
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4296812.stm

3. Confusion Reigns as Gasoline Prices Go Wild
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13280

And for your reference:
OPEC savages Gordon Brown, ignored by media
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=13042
Refineries shift to developing countries
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=12906
Gordon Brown "wrong" over anti-OPEC comments
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=1278
Doubts surface over Russian production
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11889
Lies damned lies and American unemployment
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11765
Colin Campbell attacks oil majors' profits
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11575
Could a Chinese peak derail the global economy?
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11426
Norwegian production tumbles against IEA predictions
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11506
BBC: How much oil do we really have?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4681935.stm
Oil market recovers from bombs
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=11131
Oil On The Boil.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F5CA4CFD-0FAA-4FCD-84FA-A74908EC2D6C.htm
BBC: Peak Oil enters mainstream debate.
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm
Global electricity grids strained
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4076938.stm
From the Conference on Oil & Gas depletion Lisbon, in The Guardian.
When The Wells Run Dry
http://society.guardian.co.uk/societyguardian/story/0,,1491029,00.html
Michael Meacher says Iraq war was about oil;
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/AC9B68BD-9853-494D-AB7D-A5EF74C46694.htm
South America/Middle East: A New Energy Axis?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/571DA6B0-EF38-45BC-95D5-1F9860C9B47A.htm
IEA ministers meeting sees rising consumption
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F2394B13-7D61-4877-9379-605C717902FD.htm
Bush stresses energy independence
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/32AD0BD9-A492-4ED6-BB5A-46C2CEDFBA61.htm
Experts Highlight Oil Suply Problems
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/05670D19-AF77-4F7C-AE27-53FAD722FE5E.htm
IMF say OPEC "inventories" may "change."
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E161F3F4-4602-4C09-AB80-8B121C0EABA0.htm
Bank questions Gharwar long term viability
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08B97BCF-7BE6-4F1D-A846-7ACB9B0F8894.htm
Oil report fails to answer troubling questions:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A5E81195-6515-4254-81FE-36481117C916.htm
IEA proposes brakes on fuel consumption
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/655B03B0-32C2-4BF7-A3E8-F7EFD8144333.htm
OPEC fails to calm record market
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D661FA84-45D2-4CFA-B2D8-8EA1DBE992EF.htm
US report acknowledges peak-oil threat:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/5EF86883-8CDB-49B5-9A07-5759205A9DBE.htm
Oil prices confound experts:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/79F8C0DD-E583-4104-AC5F-A2B27E8E0782.htm
Matthew Simmons says `We may have already passed peak oil`
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/80C89E7E-1DE9-42BC-920B-91E5850FB067.htm
Noam Chomsky: Budget Attacks America's Majority
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/09B3A9EE-10E3-4ED0-83E3-F33DF298B869.htm
Iraq shows US how to build homes in a warming world.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/629F6FD1-308A-412B-812F-8745D662B3A1.htm
Oil producers set to reap winter windfalls:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/FC714ECB-4937-4683-BF8E-B23CBB21ABD0.htm
Runaway debt spells tough times ahead for US economy:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F182B3C6-F10B-46A2-A36B-2A1860F3B004.htm
Greg Greene, director of End of Suburbia, announces new oil film to Aljazeera:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/CCC584E1-15E2-49A1-9AAD-048EC1BFA248.htm
Saudi Arabian fairy tales? Are Saudi figures correct?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0234CBB3-169D-42DF-8B33-6BEFF80FA478.htm
UK government tell pensioners to switch energy providers. Fiddling while Rome burns?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/0F185445-D578-4283-A68F-3705F29816DB.htm
Oil Will Fail To Meet Demand (Inc interview with Jim Meyer of ODAC)
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8853FFB5-3368-44D1-82AE-4066D9FCEA09.htm
Report Says Global Warming May Aid Oil Industry:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/A3912343-2610-4E43-86D7-2912110E01BD.htm
Oil Market Myths Shattered: Is The 'Terror Premium' Nonsense?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9EC1C0AC-C5AD-4C43-B98A-248F6F0D48A2.htm
Instability Looms As Currencies Slide:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/795C4D0A-95DD-4C66-B55A-4BF9C275AAEA.htm
Oil Price Bonanza:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C6B9BC78-26D4-42A5-9E72-0AFC116E4ABE.htm
Interview with Ali Bakhtiari:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/351FD000-D263-46D8-BE9D-C17E9D5CEB84.htm
OPEC loses control of market:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/D6E08A21-3A15-4D95-9256-9B801D9540BE.htm
US reserves under pressure?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/09E3FFAF-E0A4-4A55-AB55-470404D22B06.htm
States in decline? http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/561306AC-83F7-4FCE-A7EE-3EDD1B5C6096.htm
Market mired in confusion:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/2BF5DADA-8763-4D3C-B41B-6BB17CC429E9.htm
The elusive truth about oil reserves:
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/8AEF2417-CBDF-4E99-A8D2-CAA5409C147E.htm
The end of cheap oil?
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/416F7BA6-90FC-48E6-8F4C-CA30FDD6EB39.htm

Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: markp on Tuesday, October 18 2005 @ 08:16 AM EDT
To allow for those with no credit cards &/or no secure net access perhaps your podcasts could be free a week or two after subscribers got them. This would also provide some motivation for new users

Unless you are doing special big 'one off' reports that you expect to generate an especially high level of interest then I cant see the point of 'pay-per-podcast', I'd prefer an annual subscription.

As a merely interested layman with no direct investment or expertise in the industry I'd be willing to pay £50 a year for a weekly round-up of the energy news that you felt was significant with some analysis

Either way thanks for the service so far
Pay for Oilcast? Yes.
Authored by: EricHebert on Tuesday, October 18 2005 @ 02:08 PM EDT
Hello Adam,

In response to your question – would you be willing to pay for Oilcast? My answer is ‘yes’, I am willing to pay for your service. Yours is the most professional show out there. One thing that I would like to see on the Oilcast website is a Who Are We section; something with a picture of yourselves and your credentials. I’ve taken the time to Google you and I’ve found links to the BBC and others and I’m confident you are who you say you are, but something a little more formal would help.

I think you’ll find quite a bit of resistance to paying for just about anything on the web. The evolution of the internet and pod casting will move toward more professionally produced products and some pay-content. It is inevitable and I am willing to pay for quality.

In your blog you mentioned that the successful of pod casts tends to take up more and more time and energy and they ultimately collapse on themselves. I’ve mentioned theWatt.com to you before and this is and example of a university student taking the time to put it together, although it is excellent I fear that when he gets his masters and moves on to get a job he’ll be pressed to continue the endeavor.

Content is important and I still trust the media but I am a skeptic and what I value most is the opportunity to read and hear differing opinions on a subject by a service such as yours. Oilcast is an example of a professional news source that is trying to be heard over the crowd. It’s important to be skeptical of news from one source, which is why Oilcast deserves my support.

Thanks!

Eric

PS - It has just occurred to me that I would not feel so strongly had I not had the opportunity to hear your pod casts for free. Perhaps a free subscription for four of five pod casts with the opportunity to subscribe to continue getting the service would be one way to tackle the subscription issue.
Oil cast as a pay service and a few side notes
Authored by: PigOil on Wednesday, October 19 2005 @ 02:06 AM EDT


To all,

To question Mr. Porter’s credentials is analogous to asking the current pope (of a questionable past) whether he is qualified to perform the divine duties of god or not. It should be known that any journalist affiliated with the BBC is, more likely than not, over-qualified, experienced, and a practitioner of objective journalism- which is tantamount to presenting two, or possibly more, detailed sides of a story. I grew up listening to (and watching) the BBC, and am quite familiar with their approach to news presentation, which is similar to the way Mr. Porter does it here on Oilcast. In addition, I have been following his work for several years now, and have referred some of his articles to webmasters, independent news sites and cited some of them on my websites (in particular, Bank of Montreal report on Gharwar). Everyone can rest assured that he is a competent, eloquent journalist, an insider of the oil industry who possesses a network of contacts (including “oil contacts”), and has many published articles under his name.

When it comes to transforming oilcast to a pay site, I agree with Mr. Porter that Oilcast will or come close to a collapse-if it remains free- as the number of users continues to soar. It would simply be difficult to keep up with the demand. I know this because I operate 2 websites without asking for any sort of monetary compensation in return for what I do (for the good of the people). And it has become a “sweet” struggle just to maintain what I am doing on a daily basis. However, I strongly recommend that critical information, such as future vital reports of levels of oil production, reserve estimates, and global oil geopolitics news, remains free to the public; if Oilcast is to preserve an altruistic, gratuitous side should it make the switch to a pay service. Mr. Porter, I would like to assume, did not begin his journey on Oilcast as a result of a financial pursuit. Therefore, it would be fitting if all options and formulas regarding the oilcast service are exhausted before the final decision is made.

I am certain that most listeners of Oilcast are eagerly waiting for a confirmation from Mr. Porter that Peak Oil is a real phenomenon, and/or the planet has already peaked in oil extraction. In my opinion, it is never going to occur. First of all, a confirmation of Peak Oil would unequivocally result in the implicit acceptance of US government complicity in the attacks that occurred on 9/11/01 and, secondly, it would highlight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as being conducted as a response to the impending peak oil crisis. No reporter, journalist, let alone one affiliated to the BBC, is willing to make that a public confirmation of that kind without risking a character assassination. It is my belief that Mr. Porter knows more than he cares to admit –about peak oil, reserve estimates, etc… and rightfully so!

Much of the news we come across about oil and related information is redundant and serves as only as distraction (excluding that of Oilcast and a few others, of course). Here is why: I was in Jordan (my dad is a construction engineer) during the first gulf war and I saw the SCUDS fly over Jordanian airspace, heading towards the state of Israel. I saw on the TV, the female US ambassador and her entourage beguile the tyrant, Saddam, into attacking Kuwait, while feeding his ego with words of praise. We all know what precipitated from there on. It is by no stretch of the imagination to claim that the country of Iraq, since the 1970s, when the US first brought Saddam to power, was being setup; and made a part of the contingency planning to deal with the issue of peak oil. The fact that the world had limited, diminishing, over estimated oil reserves and that it was gradually approaching a peak was common knowledge in the Middle East, back in 1991. The wars are/were always about oil, nothing more, and nothing less. We are at or close to peak. The people of Middle East were enlightened about what was going on even then, fortunately, some were kind enough to share what little they knew with me around a glass of tea. They are a sociable, loquacious people and are willing to talk about anything.

The US government (my government) has been in preparation for the peak oil crisis since the late 1970s: when they sponsored the first Kurdish studies program at NYU in 1977 to indoctrinate those who would be used in the propaganda campaign against Turkey and Iraq. The US government began to covertly arm (in the late 1980s) the Kurdish terrorist organization, the PKK, situated in southern Turkey, to commence the gradual dismemberment of the republic of Turkey. The campaign has resulted in the death of 30,000 people, soldiers and civilians, and it continues to this day. Northern Iraq, also known as Kurdistan, is part of the Middle East the Anglo-American alliance has its eyes set on, because it is presumed that one of the biggest light sweet crude oil reserves is in that region. The southern part of Turkey (possesses huge water and natural minerals reserves) -which they hope to transfer and fuse with Kurdistan-will transform Kurdistan into a viable state, after the US and it allies first achieve the division of Iraq. Kurdistan is currently the only autonomous region in Iraq, boasting its own currency and flag. In addition, the president of the current puppet government in Iraq, Talabani, happens to be of Kurdish descent; and it is not by mere coincidence. Thus, with the Kurdistan project, the Anglo-American alliance and its subordinates hope to secure the oil reserves of Northern Iraq. That’s what they have planned. Unfortunately, chances of success are slim.

Finally, a caveat from a “nobody”: beware of the economic turbulence that is to come in the near future, which in effect will be the outcome of the demand destruction protocol being currently executed by the world governments. I issued an economic alert on September 15, via my websites, made possible through the writings of many brilliant researchers and journalists. Sure enough, exactly 40 hours after we issued our economic warning, the price of gold jumped by a 10 dollar margin, and has been on the rise since then. Thankfully, I made some money, which I needed, because I had made an investment in gold. I put my money where my mouth is. I urge everyone to review their investment options, and to take appropriate measures necessary for the future. Moreover, preparations should not be restricted to finance only (should include shelter, food sources, energy alternatives, and medicine (to combat viral infections, fevers, etc).

I am one of those who will gladly subscribe to the Oilcast service, if it indeed does become a pay service.

Best Wishes, PigOil

Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: Paradox on Wednesday, October 19 2005 @ 05:47 AM EDT
Hi Adam ....

I am a relatively new follower of the oil scene .... researching and trading oil for about eight months.

I find your commentary authoritative and insightful, and I enjoy your reporting style.

I would seriously consider participating in a subscription based service with a fee commensurate to the value provided.

.... Paradox

P.S.
I don't feel too confortable with someones suggestion of using PalPal though ...
http://www.paypalwarning.com/
Oilcast #25: IEA report 'Resources to reserves' deeply flawed
Authored by: Oilcasters on Wednesday, October 19 2005 @ 07:55 AM EDT
Hi again,
I'm really grateful for all your input.
And thank you for the kind words i really appreciate it.

Thanks for taking the time to write all that Mr/Ms Pigoil...you are most kind.

I would agree with Baby Peanut though that any `analysis` should be questioned and my credentials too.

Just because i am a journalist it does not make my view more valid than someone else's. I meet/talk to people all the time from a variety of backgrounds/professions who have interesting insights into energy questions. I also see analysis from established/accepted sources that sometimes seems pretty woeful.

I think the one thing i try to keep in mind is that i do not know the state of the world's oil reserves. But then i don't think any individual does. I'm a little wary of people who say they `know` or `believe` in a certain prospect.

Hence clarity over the future is very hard to fathom.

As far as the `peak oil` question goes, again, i really don't know. But i'm certainly interested in what the people talking about it are saying.

I think the only thing I did which was different from other journalists `back` in 02/03 was be prepared to take people like Colin Campbell and Ali Bakhtiari seriously. Nowadays a lot of journalists do.

That would be in the same way i take BP seriously or I take bank analysts seriously.

As regards payment for Oilcast and so forth. the responses i've had have been very interesting. i'm still undecided to be honest.

i'm talking to a few people who see a bit of potential in Oilcast, and yes i've talked to Ben over at the Watt. I really like the Watt, very good.

I guess at the end of the day (and other cliches) it would be nice to have an independent media outlet on oil and energy. a sustainable one that could pay contributors and those who work on it. that is really the question i'm trying to address.

i am also trying to address the situation early, in advance.

So again, thanks for all your input...i'd better do some work! ;)

all the best
adam




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